State of the City of Launceston 2020-21

7 February 2022

Data Notes

The State of the City report provides a number of data and trend driven insights which underpin many of the proposed actions and actions in the City of Launceston Four Year Delivery Plan.

Data has been sourced from a range of sources and whilst every effort has been made to present timely information, one of the core data sources available to government is Census data (collected every five years). The last reported Census period was 2016, with 2021 Census data becoming available from early next year.

The data presented is for general information purposes only. Users of the data should conduct their own research as well as exercise their own judgment and caution before relying on the data.

Overview: City of Launceston, State of the City Report

COVID

The 2020-21 Tasmanian State Government budget summed up the impacts of COVID-19 on the Tasmanian economy: 

'The economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have been swift, severe and on a scale not seen since the Great Depression. The public health crisis, and the measures implemented to slow the spread of infection, have led to sharp declines in economic activity and employment globally. Despite these measures, outbreaks have continued to occur in many countries through the second half of 2020, including in Australia.

The full consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic remain very uncertain. There is uncertainty in relation to the evolution of the pandemic, the associated public health response and the nature and extent of future support measures that will be required to be implemented by the State and Australian Governments.'

The Tasmanian State Budget can be found here (data sources used in this report are collated in the 'Sources' section of this document).

Impact of COVID-19 on employment in Launceston, comparison Sept 2020 to Sept 2019

In Launceston, the health restrictions put in place to limit movement meant that the industries most impacted were:

Accommodation and Food Services (-926 local jobs without the JobKeeper scheme)
Retail Trade (-253 local jobs without the JobKeeper scheme)
Arts and Recreation Services (-224 local jobs without the JobKeeper scheme)

Local jobs Impact in Sept 2020 quarter (compared to Sept 2019 quarter)

Council Responses

Community Care and Recovery Package

Community Care and Recovery Grants - were designed to support local businesses to enhance their digital capability and to develop alternate business approaches in the wake of the significant social and economic upheaval the pandemic created. $800,000 to 196 Launceston businesses and organisations, resulting in estimated $1.3m in economic activity

Rates Remission, focusing on locally-owned businesses
Rate rise held at 0% increase
Interim Rates and Charges Hardship Policy
Grants to access professional advice and implement a Circular Economy platform for the Construction Industry
Community Assistance Initiatives to help vulnerable people
COVID-19 Events rescheduling assistance
Accelerating Capital Works program to ensure funding goes to deliverable projects

Population

Current Population

68,800 (launceston.id - 2020)

Population Projections

The 2019 population projections for Tasmania run to 2067, with the projections for LGAs to 2042.

Due to poor growth between 2014 and 2019, the 2019 projections were downgraded for the Launceston LGA to approximately 70,000 in 2037.

Implications of an Aging Workforce and Slow Population Growth

Employed 18 to 50 year olds (Tasmania)

2006 - 146,900
2016 - 140,500

17,300 additional workers in the over 55 age group from 2006 to 2016

The workforce in key sectors such as education, health care and retail is particularly affected by the aging in the workforce and low population growth.

However, positive signs are showing

Launceston has experienced positive population growth in 2020 at 1.15% for the year or a net increase of 779 people.

Importantly, the growth rate is nearing the NTDC Population Taskforce Strategy target of 1.2% annual growth.

Regional Movers Index

Early indications suggest that the positive population growth of 2020 has continued in to 2021. The Regional Movers Index is powered by CBA data from relocations amongst its 10 million customers

Launceston was ranked as fourth for regional migration nationwide by annual growth, with a 34% increase in annual growth from capital cities.

Employment and Trade

01 / 07

Local Jobs - Breakdown

Health Care and Social Assistance (18.5%)
Retail Trade (11.1%)
Education and Training (10.5%)
Construction (8.5%)

Change in Employment

The largest changes in the jobs held by the full-time equivalent local workers between 2014-15 and 2019-20 in Launceston were:

Health Care and Social Assistance (+656 full-time equivalent local workers)
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (+201 full-time equivalent local workers)
Construction (+146 full-time equivalent local workers)
Education and Training (+135 full-time equivalent local workers)

Unemployment

Unemployment has jumped from 6.6% in June 2020 to 8.3% in March 2021 (approximately 2,940 people unemployed)

This may be attributed to:

The growth in Population (more people new to Launceston now reported to be looking for work),
A large portion of recipients no longer receiving Jobkeeper and extended Jobseeker payments being reclassified as looking for work
The unemployment rate has been consistently higher than Tasmania and Hobart for nearly a decade so the trend is concerning

There are Jobs Available

In particular online vacancies have been increasing, up 346% over the past year,
The City of Launceston recently participated in the Launceston Jobs Fair where over 1,000 local jobs were available

Retail - The Household Budget

Household spending is assisting the COVID-19 recovery:

In January 2020, the retail trade estimate for Tasmania rose 6.7% from 2019, with an annual turnover of $580.7 million
Tasmania tends to have bigger booms and busts

Dormant Shop Survey

The number of ground floor shops open for business in Launceston's CBD has rapidly improved in the wake of disruptions caused by COVID-19 last year.

At the height of last year's lockdown, Council data shows that the number of dormant ground floor shops rose to 154 in the Launceston CBD.

Post lockdown, early data shows that Launceston's CBD has rebounded with only 57 dormant ground floor shops, of which 12 were renovating and 4 were for lease.

This equates to approximately 93% of the Launceston CBD ground floor commercial space being utilised and open for business (total 607 points surveyed).

Housing data

REIT Media Release June 2021 Quarter

From a municipal perspective, Launceston recorded the most sales in Tasmania with 338 worth $161,558,244
Launceston recorded their highest median prices ever ($461,000)
2019 median price $335,000 (36.7% increase in 2 years)
Vacancy rates are now at an historical low with Launceston recording 1.1%
Launceston remains the investment "capital" of Tasmania with 28% of its properties being sold for investment purposes

Broad Indicators

Gross Regional Product

Despite COVID-19, the City of Launceston still experienced positive growth in Gross Regional Product with an annual increase of 0.9% to $4.745B .

Tourism

Tourism remains one of the hardest hit by COVID-19 border closures.
Tourism is an important driver of employment with approximately 5,450 people (13.5%) employed directly and indirectly in the industry.

Air travel

Air travel was effectively shut down at the height of the border closures.

Bounce back has been spotty, April 2021 inbound passengers are down 17% from April 2019, but June 2021 figures are down 51% from June 2021.

One of the positives to come out of COVID-19 has been the introduction of direct flights from Launceston to Perth, Adelaide and the Gold Coast.

Digital inclusion

Low Digital Inclusion Scores

Launceston and North Eastern Tasmania have the lowest digital inclusion index scores.

We have significantly lower scores in Digital Abilities than the rest of the state and the Nation.

Low Levels of Internet Connection

The My Place My Future Plan needs analysis shows that up to 30% of households across the Northern Suburbs do not have an internet connection (2016 Census data).

Digital dexterity aids online job seekers

One of the examples of why digital inclusion is so important is access to available jobs.

Online job postings have grown by 346% in the past year

Online jobs

The spread of jobs being advertised online is evenly spread across the skill spectrum.

Skill level 1 being Bachelor or higher, skill level 5 being secondary education.

This is reflected across the number of online jobs ads, from general clerks to registered nurses.

City of Launceston Free Public WIFI Signal Extent. This is an active map, use the + / - buttons to zoom in and the mouse to move around.

Health and Education

Health - Socio-Economic Index for Areas

The Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage is derived from attributes such as low income, low educational attainment, high unemployment, jobs in relatively unskilled occupations and variables that broadly reflect disadvantage rather than measure specific aspects of disadvantage (e.g. Indigenous and Separated/Divorced).

Whilst SEIFA is not a measure of the health of the population, it is an indicator of socio-economic disadvantage which is a strong indicator of poor health outcomes.

Launceston has some extremely disadvantaged suburbs with the following areas having the highest disadvantage (SEIFA scores):

Rocherlea (598.4)
Ravenswood (721.7)
Mayfield (745.1)
Waverley (801.3)
Northern Suburbs (816.6)

Education

43.1% of the population left school at Year 10 or below
39.1% of people aged over 15 years had completed Year 12 schooling (or equivalent) as of 2016
This is 12.8% lower than the Australian average of 51.9%
Positively, the largest change in the level of schooling obtained was Year 12 or equivalent which increased by 2,043 people between 2011 and 2016

Educational Attainment Rates, Year 12

Attainment rates are estimated by calculating the number of students who meet the requirements of a year 12 certificate or equivalent expressed as a percentage of the potential year 12 population.

Over the past 10 years, Tasmania has steadily improved attainment rates from 42% in 2010 to 58% in 2019.

Environment

01 / 05

Tamar Estuary 2020 Report Card

Zone 1 - Launceston to Legana

D (Poor ecosystem health).

Zone 1 has consistently received ‘poor’ grades in past reporting years except 2018, when it received a ‘fail’. Improved grades in Zone 1 are due to improved levels of dissolved oxygen, reduced turbidity and a decreased concentration of aluminium, cadmium and arsenic.

Stormwater - Our Actions

Urban sewage intrusion projects have been undertaken by City of Launceston in Trevallyn, Newstead and the majority of Riverside as part of the River Health Action Plan catchment works. As of June 2020, these investigations have found nine confirmed sewage intrusions, two broken sewage mains and a collapsed stormwater main within these catchments; all of which are being rectified or are already fixed.

Further investigations are happening in Mowbray, Norwood and Punchbowl and will continue until 2021. These improvements to stormwater management will result in decreased pathogens and other pollutants entering the kanamaluka/Tamar estuary.

Please note, the image to the right is a reproduced summary of the Tamar Estuary 2020 Report Card. To read the full report click here

National Cities Performance Framework

The Australian Government have created the National Cities Performance Framework to provide data to all levels of Government on the performance of 22 of our largest cities.

Source: Commonwealth of Australia, Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, ‘National Cities Performance Framework Report’.

Dwellings with Access to Public Open Space

Defined as: proportion of dwellings within 400 metres walking distance of public open space that is 1.5 hectares or greater.

Launceston ranked last for Dwellings with access to public open space at 37.5% (2018)

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Launceston is performing better than most cities with 11.1 Tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions per capita per year (2017), for a total of 758,740 tonnes.

The City of Launceston's annual emissions were approximately 59,000 tonnes in 2018/2019, 89% of which comes from the City of Launceston landfill.

Air Quality

Launceston has historically had poor Air Quality and this is reflected by having the 2nd worst air quality in Australia's largest cities in 2016

Environment Protection Authority Mapping

Launceston's position within a confined valley and reliance on wood heater usage are major contributors to the poor air quality.

The Environment Protection Authority released the following map based on 2017 data which displays the relative air quality of the Launceston urban area.

Source: EPA

Sport and Recreation

Community and Professional Sporting Infrastructure

Sport and recreation is a core part of our community at many levels. Participation is growing and in some areas outstripping facilities.
An upgraded stadium and a national level indoor court facility are identified as required to maintain professional level team sports in Launceston.

Source: Future Direction Plan York Park (UTAS Stadium) 2021

Gaps Analysis

The greatest identified need at a community level is for indoor multi use courts.
Regionally, there are sufficient sports ovals for AFL and cricket, however some ovals are at capacity in Launceston, Prospect, Perth and Legana.
There is an insufficient supply of rectangular pitches used for soccer, baseball, softball and touch football regionally.
There are enough outdoor courts for netball, tennis and hockey until at least 2036.
2018 Northern Tasmanian Sporting Facilities Study, prepared by SGS Economics & Planning

Drivers of Demand

Key drivers of demand for facilities were identified as population growth, female participation in AFL and cricket, the casualisation of participation and the ageing of the population.

Culture and Arts

Culture

Our Cultural Strategy 2020 - 2030 was created to drive a vital element of our community forward.

QVMAG

Queen Victoria Museum and Art Gallery (QVMAG) is the main Cultural institution in Launceston.

Total visitation to QVMAG was steadily increasing until 2017/18 before declining in 2018/19 and 2019/20.

COVID-19 had a major impact on visitation with more than 40,000 fewer visitors than the year before.

QVMAG and Cataract Gorge Tourism

Prior to COVID, QVMAG and Cataract Gorge were key visitation sites for international and interstate tourists:

73% of visitors to QVMAG are Tasmanian
22% of visitors are from interstate, and 5% are international

Despite the quality of QVMAG, it has much lower market share than TMAG and MONA.

Transport and Mobility

Journey to Work

Launceston is a city dominated by the car.

89% of commuters choose to travel to work via their car.

Launceston is the regional employment hub with 37% of people who work in Launceston living outside the LGA:

15.7% travel from West Tamar
10.8% travel from Meander Valley
6.3% travel from Northern Midlands

Only 17.5% of the population live in Launceston and work outside the area.

Public Transport - A Great Opportunity

The City of Launceston is currently working on a number of projects to improve CBD connectivity.

Development

2020-21 Financial Year

The latest figures show that the City of Launceston approved 771 planning applications worth $383,657,211 in the 2020-21 financial year, smashing the previous record — set last year — of 673 planning applications worth $215,005,934.

Of the 771 applications approved last year, 549 were for residential purposes worth a total of $167,133,796.

CBD In-fill (within 1km)

CBD In-fill has been a key focus to bring the community into the city centre and create vibrant inner city neighbourhoods while also adding value to existing properties.

Within one kilometre of the CBD, there have been 100 development applications since January 2020 at an estimated value of $53 million, with two City Deal commitments (University of Tasmania Inveresk Relocation & CBD In-fill Development) having a major impact.

Sources

Some sources come from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2016 census. They are identified below by "ABS 2016 Census". This data can be found at https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/lookup/by%20subject/1001.0~2016-17~main%20features~the%202016%20census%20of%20population%20and%20housing~10009

City of Launceston Annual Reports and Strategies can be found here: https://www.launceston.tas.gov.au/Council/Strategies-and-Reports